CMIP6 GISS-E2.1-G NINT f2 Effective Radiative Forcings (ERF, W/m2) historical+SSP245 Miller et al. (2021) https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002034 "Sm" denotes a smoothed version of the ERF using a lowess smoother with a 20-year window In contast Fig. 10 in Miller et al. (2021) uses a Fourier smoother Year All WMGHG WMGHG (Sm) Aerosols Aerosols (Sm) Natural 1850 0.039 -0.077 -0.131 -0.077 0.006 0.103 1851 0.094 -0.231 -0.114 -0.027 -0.005 -0.336 1852 0.160 -0.146 -0.097 0.004 -0.015 0.143 1853 0.125 -0.076 -0.082 0.110 -0.026 -0.111 1854 -0.298 -0.080 -0.066 0.237 -0.036 0.006 1855 -0.242 0.176 -0.051 -0.210 -0.045 -0.014 1856 -0.223 -0.010 -0.036 0.036 -0.054 -0.167 1857 0.145 -0.246 -0.022 -0.335 -0.062 0.085 1858 -0.164 0.091 -0.007 -0.090 -0.071 0.056 1859 -0.030 0.073 0.008 -0.051 -0.082 -0.301 1860 0.061 0.034 0.015 -0.217 -0.092 0.027 1861 -0.514 0.030 0.020 -0.022 -0.101 -0.401 1862 -0.688 0.046 0.021 -0.230 -0.108 -0.605 1863 0.229 0.145 0.020 0.302 -0.113 -0.080 1864 -0.102 -0.040 0.019 -0.092 -0.115 -0.042 1865 0.169 -0.119 0.016 -0.083 -0.117 0.106 1866 0.158 0.157 0.014 0.039 -0.121 -0.017 1867 -0.140 -0.115 0.011 -0.471 -0.124 -0.172 1868 0.511 0.105 0.008 -0.317 -0.127 0.150 1869 0.017 -0.020 0.008 0.057 -0.129 0.046 1870 -0.173 -0.078 0.012 -0.236 -0.131 -0.029 1871 0.084 0.014 0.019 -0.087 -0.133 0.025 1872 0.040 -0.059 0.027 -0.056 -0.134 0.107 1873 -0.182 0.326 0.035 -0.259 -0.135 -0.042 1874 0.082 0.042 0.042 -0.342 -0.133 -0.089 1875 -0.139 -0.207 0.046 -0.019 -0.130 0.183 1876 -0.021 0.051 0.050 -0.024 -0.129 -0.126 1877 0.057 0.165 0.053 -0.080 -0.130 0.164 1878 0.121 0.188 0.057 -0.127 -0.132 0.194 1879 -0.026 0.270 0.061 -0.334 -0.133 0.111 1880 0.019 -0.114 0.064 0.003 -0.133 -0.104 1881 0.038 -0.045 0.069 -0.152 -0.131 -0.186 1882 0.152 0.116 0.075 0.065 -0.130 -0.071 1883 -0.719 0.013 0.084 -0.364 -0.131 -0.724 1884 -1.483 0.011 0.094 -0.262 -0.134 -1.805 1885 -0.537 0.118 0.104 -0.138 -0.136 -0.583 1886 -0.128 -0.084 0.116 -0.119 -0.138 -0.067 1887 -0.012 0.273 0.129 -0.058 -0.139 -0.152 1888 0.086 0.111 0.143 -0.101 -0.141 -0.028 1889 0.254 0.195 0.157 -0.046 -0.142 0.046 1890 0.156 0.496 0.170 -0.191 -0.141 -0.098 1891 0.079 0.271 0.181 -0.218 -0.139 -0.190 1892 0.118 0.193 0.191 -0.154 -0.141 0.005 1893 0.350 0.172 0.199 -0.104 -0.146 -0.011 1894 0.252 0.115 0.203 -0.199 -0.152 0.209 1895 0.346 0.317 0.203 -0.143 -0.157 0.175 1896 0.175 0.014 0.203 -0.217 -0.162 0.354 1897 0.171 0.323 0.201 0.060 -0.165 0.022 1898 0.084 0.231 0.200 -0.062 -0.169 -0.015 1899 0.007 -0.071 0.200 -0.352 -0.175 -0.092 1900 -0.067 0.302 0.202 -0.337 -0.183 0.032 1901 -0.093 0.262 0.208 -0.147 -0.195 -0.065 1902 -0.132 0.078 0.216 -0.067 -0.209 -0.347 1903 -0.839 0.168 0.225 0.204 -0.225 -0.987 1904 -0.211 0.331 0.236 -0.353 -0.242 -0.411 1905 0.550 0.197 0.250 0.039 -0.258 -0.085 1906 0.243 0.089 0.265 -0.600 -0.272 0.082 1907 -0.018 0.286 0.280 -0.295 -0.281 0.153 1908 0.098 0.277 0.295 -0.178 -0.288 0.016 1909 0.351 0.476 0.309 -0.398 -0.294 0.007 1910 0.168 0.426 0.324 -0.545 -0.299 -0.087 1911 0.147 0.208 0.339 -0.294 -0.302 0.031 1912 -0.331 0.361 0.354 -0.454 -0.304 -0.838 1913 -0.126 0.574 0.370 -0.330 -0.307 -0.459 1914 0.156 0.394 0.387 -0.144 -0.310 -0.051 1915 0.456 0.269 0.404 -0.046 -0.313 0.066 1916 0.240 0.279 0.420 -0.105 -0.315 0.151 1917 0.425 0.523 0.435 -0.391 -0.318 0.077 1918 0.559 0.135 0.451 -0.323 -0.322 0.167 1919 0.208 0.549 0.467 -0.411 -0.331 0.276 1920 0.365 0.418 0.483 -0.363 -0.345 -0.010 1921 0.353 0.622 0.497 -0.360 -0.360 -0.060 1922 0.204 0.629 0.511 -0.309 -0.373 -0.196 1923 0.357 0.415 0.524 -0.427 -0.382 -0.157 1924 0.347 0.686 0.535 -0.441 -0.386 -0.019 1925 0.384 0.584 0.543 -0.383 -0.383 0.257 1926 0.236 0.372 0.550 -0.498 -0.377 0.008 1927 0.490 0.845 0.557 -0.630 -0.367 0.184 1928 0.382 0.409 0.565 -0.231 -0.358 0.085 1929 0.329 0.568 0.576 -0.373 -0.349 -0.291 1930 0.593 0.568 0.588 -0.335 -0.342 0.144 1931 0.542 0.566 0.603 -0.378 -0.337 0.017 1932 0.120 0.544 0.621 -0.265 -0.336 0.157 1933 0.333 0.599 0.639 -0.112 -0.340 -0.075 1934 0.529 0.641 0.657 -0.088 -0.349 0.003 1935 0.535 0.783 0.671 -0.286 -0.365 0.236 1936 0.360 0.820 0.683 -0.615 -0.387 0.390 1937 0.454 0.701 0.695 -0.251 -0.413 0.158 1938 0.638 0.782 0.704 -0.356 -0.439 0.087 1939 0.280 0.323 0.713 -0.606 -0.464 0.219 1940 0.427 0.954 0.720 -0.446 -0.488 -0.061 1941 0.444 0.635 0.727 -0.584 -0.508 -0.056 1942 0.454 0.603 0.732 -0.801 -0.524 0.083 1943 0.478 0.739 0.738 -0.635 -0.537 0.136 1944 0.288 0.788 0.744 -0.801 -0.548 -0.177 1945 0.416 0.714 0.752 -0.493 -0.561 0.139 1946 0.824 0.556 0.762 -0.453 -0.572 0.220 1947 0.723 0.830 0.775 -0.410 -0.580 0.444 1948 0.485 0.752 0.788 -0.652 -0.586 0.283 1949 0.636 0.948 0.803 -0.422 -0.593 0.264 1950 0.427 0.859 0.817 -0.475 -0.604 0.322 1951 0.459 0.921 0.831 -0.708 -0.618 0.219 1952 0.578 0.636 0.845 -0.811 -0.634 0.103 1953 0.307 0.843 0.858 -0.710 -0.652 0.258 1954 0.426 0.860 0.871 -0.541 -0.672 0.198 1955 0.297 1.010 0.883 -0.286 -0.693 -0.039 1956 0.461 0.823 0.894 -0.826 -0.714 0.061 1957 0.410 0.892 0.907 -0.881 -0.735 0.156 1958 0.615 0.875 0.920 -0.743 -0.755 0.238 1959 0.733 0.944 0.935 -0.589 -0.772 0.182 1960 0.396 0.941 0.950 -0.656 -0.788 0.314 1961 0.390 1.001 0.966 -0.826 -0.806 0.004 1962 0.532 0.941 0.981 -0.909 -0.825 -0.027 1963 -1.025 1.009 0.997 -0.903 -0.844 -1.661 1964 -0.776 1.093 1.016 -1.001 -0.865 -0.523 1965 -0.094 1.033 1.035 -0.762 -0.889 -0.397 1966 0.368 0.750 1.056 -0.785 -0.914 0.282 1967 0.341 1.147 1.080 -0.970 -0.939 -0.216 1968 0.562 1.008 1.106 -1.037 -0.963 0.292 1969 0.788 1.093 1.135 -0.776 -0.987 0.235 1970 0.494 1.168 1.165 -1.105 -1.012 0.108 1971 0.496 1.193 1.197 -0.974 -1.040 -0.025 1972 0.472 1.188 1.231 -1.136 -1.067 0.014 1973 0.610 1.074 1.270 -1.150 -1.091 0.079 1974 0.311 1.507 1.313 -1.000 -1.110 -0.074 1975 0.297 1.501 1.359 -1.077 -1.123 -0.370 1976 0.371 1.303 1.408 -1.322 -1.132 -0.218 1977 0.544 1.398 1.459 -1.507 -1.141 0.022 1978 0.836 1.459 1.512 -1.550 -1.151 0.142 1979 0.654 1.419 1.566 -1.137 -1.160 0.317 1980 0.692 1.673 1.622 -1.064 -1.168 0.046 1981 0.984 1.744 1.677 -1.239 -1.176 0.039 1982 0.484 1.708 1.731 -1.024 -1.182 -0.168 1983 0.515 1.736 1.783 -1.047 -1.188 -0.734 1984 0.738 1.904 1.833 -1.261 -1.193 -0.195 1985 1.072 1.944 1.884 -1.151 -1.200 -0.105 1986 0.839 2.126 1.933 -1.387 -1.209 -0.257 1987 1.101 1.936 1.979 -1.111 -1.222 -0.043 1988 1.086 2.184 2.022 -1.254 -1.236 0.214 1989 1.355 1.860 2.062 -1.258 -1.250 0.010 1990 1.427 2.004 2.099 -1.366 -1.263 0.049 1991 0.297 2.136 2.134 -1.349 -1.273 -1.195 1992 -0.691 2.227 2.167 -1.066 -1.278 -1.835 1993 0.348 2.345 2.202 -1.236 -1.276 -0.864 1994 1.048 2.194 2.240 -1.351 -1.271 0.207 1995 1.334 2.221 2.282 -1.357 -1.265 0.070 1996 1.416 2.296 2.323 -1.510 -1.259 -0.071 1997 1.551 2.403 2.362 -1.057 -1.255 0.143 1998 1.426 2.250 2.397 -1.525 -1.251 0.134 1999 1.709 2.380 2.429 -1.159 -1.250 0.299 2000 1.908 2.597 2.457 -1.078 -1.248 0.343 2001 1.601 2.700 2.485 -1.161 -1.242 0.137 2002 1.718 2.718 2.514 -1.190 -1.235 0.301 2003 1.685 2.479 2.545 -1.646 -1.229 -0.086 2004 1.913 2.312 2.575 -1.260 -1.228 0.172 2005 1.492 2.735 2.603 -1.261 -1.232 -0.035 2006 1.365 2.577 2.630 -1.264 -1.237 0.254 2007 1.741 2.540 2.655 -1.308 -1.240 -0.038 2008 1.776 2.677 2.681 -1.163 -1.237 0.040 2009 1.858 2.634 2.710 -1.020 -1.227 -0.348 2010 1.813 2.793 2.741 -1.308 -1.210 0.200 2011 1.820 2.825 2.774 -1.408 -1.190 -0.073 2012 1.941 2.766 2.807 -1.411 -1.167 0.113 2013 2.196 2.766 2.840 -1.265 -1.145 0.330 2014 2.041 3.004 2.874 -0.989 -1.124 0.335 2015 2.296 2.940 2.910 -1.084 -1.104 0.084 2016 2.446 3.089 2.948 -0.840 -1.083 -0.159 2017 2.478 2.893 2.988 -1.115 -1.061 -0.207 2018 2.384 2.876 3.029 -1.015 -1.037 -0.138 2019 2.574 2.892 3.073 -0.851 -1.014 -0.064 2020 2.722 3.116 3.117 -0.920 -0.994 -0.229 2021 2.711 3.366 3.162 -1.030 -0.978 -0.076 2022 2.919 3.012 3.209 -1.121 -0.966 0.224 2023 2.899 3.229 3.257 -0.952 -0.956 0.086 2024 2.942 3.415 3.306 -1.034 -0.948 0.049 2025 3.062 3.360 3.355 -0.874 -0.941 0.188 2026 2.995 3.451 3.402 -0.845 -0.933 -0.146 2027 2.897 3.522 3.445 -0.910 -0.923 -0.166 2028 3.457 3.432 3.483 -0.937 -0.910 0.052 2029 3.166 3.650 3.518 -0.774 -0.897 0.034 2030 3.295 3.610 3.553 -1.148 -0.886 0.036 2031 3.105 3.595 3.589 -0.843 -0.878 0.044 2032 2.863 3.393 3.625 -0.907 -0.871 -0.067 2033 3.256 3.614 3.660 -0.889 -0.866 0.019 2034 3.417 3.705 3.696 -0.837 -0.859 0.098 2035 3.498 4.196 3.732 -0.538 -0.848 -0.068 2036 3.743 3.728 3.771 -0.794 -0.832 -0.218 2037 3.592 3.679 3.811 -1.118 -0.814 -0.243 2038 3.487 4.049 3.853 -1.067 -0.793 0.172 2039 3.850 3.971 3.898 -0.449 -0.772 -0.060 2040 3.527 3.749 3.944 -0.833 -0.751 0.082 2041 3.826 4.059 3.990 -0.898 -0.730 -0.200 2042 3.596 3.977 4.033 -0.639 -0.710 -0.158 2043 3.684 4.094 4.076 -0.666 -0.689 -0.188 2044 3.720 4.260 4.119 -0.599 -0.667 -0.169 2045 4.207 4.132 4.159 -0.590 -0.645 0.180 2046 4.183 4.106 4.195 -0.602 -0.626 0.084 2047 4.091 4.264 4.229 -0.487 -0.611 0.107 2048 4.048 4.423 4.259 -0.523 -0.597 0.078 2049 4.268 4.212 4.285 -0.783 -0.587 0.042 2050 4.275 4.339 4.307 -0.517 -0.579 -0.060 2051 4.217 4.441 4.326 -0.787 -0.573 0.071 2052 4.175 4.537 4.342 -0.555 -0.567 0.024 2053 4.176 4.262 4.358 -0.419 -0.561 0.229 2054 4.535 4.280 4.375 -0.542 -0.553 0.023 2055 4.373 4.519 4.392 -0.622 -0.545 0.007 2056 4.465 4.365 4.410 -0.540 -0.536 -0.438 2057 4.542 4.349 4.430 -0.580 -0.527 0.017 2058 4.227 4.353 4.451 -0.531 -0.518 0.066 2059 4.591 4.369 4.473 -0.223 -0.509 -0.070 2060 4.406 4.447 4.497 -0.492 -0.500 -0.005 2061 4.363 4.738 4.525 -0.584 -0.490 -0.027 2062 4.605 4.659 4.554 -0.375 -0.479 -0.116 2063 4.625 4.458 4.585 -0.713 -0.466 -0.076 2064 4.745 4.668 4.617 -0.374 -0.452 -0.055 2065 4.668 4.696 4.650 -0.655 -0.436 -0.133 2066 4.719 4.636 4.682 -0.263 -0.420 0.083 2067 4.703 4.639 4.711 -0.401 -0.403 0.123 2068 4.784 4.825 4.739 -0.562 -0.386 0.159 2069 4.860 4.732 4.766 -0.323 -0.370 0.038 2070 4.875 4.868 4.794 -0.396 -0.355 -0.104 2071 4.726 4.635 4.822 -0.274 -0.339 0.137 2072 4.685 4.969 4.850 -0.095 -0.323 0.020 2073 4.935 4.875 4.876 -0.275 -0.307 0.146 2074 4.791 4.925 4.901 -0.312 -0.290 -0.295 2075 4.966 4.832 4.924 -0.321 -0.274 0.131 2076 4.903 5.045 4.944 -0.347 -0.262 0.295 2077 4.995 5.002 4.959 -0.458 -0.252 0.089 2078 4.798 5.039 4.971 -0.084 -0.245 -0.280 2079 5.068 4.968 4.978 -0.130 -0.239 0.008 2080 5.211 4.986 4.982 -0.296 -0.232 -0.001 2081 5.035 5.119 4.982 -0.034 -0.224 0.166 2082 5.156 4.962 4.978 -0.191 -0.215 0.030 2083 5.241 5.145 4.972 -0.317 -0.207 -0.367 2084 5.201 4.892 4.966 -0.247 -0.201 -0.154 2085 5.264 4.833 4.960 -0.144 -0.198 -0.078 2086 5.075 4.933 4.956 -0.166 -0.196 -0.175 2087 5.249 5.143 4.952 -0.303 -0.194 -0.143 2088 4.926 4.851 4.951 -0.079 -0.191 0.032 2089 5.023 4.804 4.952 -0.273 -0.188 0.098 2090 5.138 4.831 4.956 -0.097 -0.185 0.199 2091 5.162 5.066 4.965 -0.301 -0.182 -0.018 2092 5.450 4.940 4.977 -0.087 -0.184 0.144 2093 5.426 5.141 4.990 -0.242 -0.185 -0.021 2094 5.179 4.924 5.002 -0.030 -0.187 0.083 2095 5.120 4.857 5.014 -0.174 -0.189 0.223 2096 5.145 5.125 5.027 -0.263 -0.190 0.184 2097 5.283 5.146 5.040 -0.063 -0.192 -0.013 2098 5.425 5.136 5.053 -0.304 -0.195 0.125 2099 5.357 4.770 5.067 -0.201 -0.197 0.221 2100 5.388 5.081 5.080 -0.217 -0.200 0.099