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ModelE Climate Simulations

Efficacy of Climate Forcings

These webpages present data products related to the journal article "Efficacy of climate forcings" by Hansen et al. (2005).

Maps, graphs and numerical data for many climate diagnostic quantities are provided from the large number of climate simulations that were made for that paper. The available data include the climate responses to each of the forcings for fixed SST simulations ("Fixed SST Response") as well as for the interactive coupled atmosphere-ocean model ("100-Year Response"). For convenience of reference, the data are organized here along the lines of the four tables in the paper.

To view maps and profiles, begin by selecting "Plots" from one of the following groups.

(Note: PDF documents require a special viewer such as the free Adobe Reader.)

In the tables and plots:

  • "Fixed SST Responses" are the changes from current conditions averaged over a 90-year period (years 11-100) caused by the indicated forcing agent.
  • "100-Year Response" refers to the change from current conditions averaged over a 40-year period (years 81-120) calculated by the model after addition of the indicated forcing agent.
  • "Fi", the instantaneous forcing, is the radiative flux change at the tropopause after the forcing agent is introduced.
  • "Fa", the adjusted forcing, is the flux change at the top of the atmosphere (and throughout the stratosphere) after the stratosphere is allowed to adjust radiatively to the presence of the forcing agent.
  • "Fs", the fixed SST forcing, is a combination of the flux change at the top of (and throughout) the atmosphere and of the global surface air temperature change after the forcing and with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice (SI) held fixed.

See the model forcing pages for a more detailed description of these forcings.

Table 1. Forcings and Responses for Greenhouse Gas Experiments

  Forcing Mechanism Fi(W/m2) Fa(W/m2) Fs(W/m2) Fixed SST Response 100-yr Response
1Scaled GHG-concentrations (1xCO2 = 291ppm)
 1/8 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 1/4 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 1/2 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 5/4 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 3/2 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 2 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 4 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 8 × CO2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
2Specified GHG-changes
 CO2,CH4,N2O,CFC 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 CO2 291->370 ppm Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 CH4 837->1752 ppb Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 CH4 837->3504 ppb Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 CH4 837->9000 ppb Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 N2O 278->316 ppb Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 N2O 278->1898 ppb Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 CFC11, yr 2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 CFC12, yr 2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 non-CFC trace gases yr 2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 trace gases yr 2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 CFC11+CFC12, 4 × yr 2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
3Stratospheric water vapor generated by CH4 Oxidation
 CH4 oxidation 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 CH4 oxidation none->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
4Ozone
 ozone 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 trop.ozone 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt

Table 2. Aerosol forcings and responses

  Forcing Mechanism Fi(W/m2) Fa(W/m2) Fs(W/m2) Fixed SST Response 100-yr Response
1Stratospheric aerosols
 1/3 × Pinatubo aerosols Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Pinatubo aerosols Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
2Combinations of tropospheric aerosols (Direct Effects)
 trop.aeros 1850->1997 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 trop.aeros 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 trop.aeros 1850->2000 (E3) Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 refl. aerosols 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 black carbon, 2 × 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
3Individual tropospheric aerosols (Direct Effects)
 sulfates, 2 × 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 nitrates, 5 × 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 OCIndustr, 6 × 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 OCIndustr, 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 OCBiomass, 6 × 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 OCBiomass, 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 BCIndustr, 2 × 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 BCIndustr, 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
 BCBiomass, 6 × 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 BCBiomass, 1850->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon
4Impact of vertical profile for black carbons
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 1 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 3 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 4 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 5 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 6 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 7 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Unif.BlackCarbon->layer 8 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 2 × dBCI->layer 2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 2 × dBCI->layer 5 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 2 × dBCB->layer 2 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 2 × dBCB->layer 5 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
5Time independent aerosols
 sea salt Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 desert dust Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
6Indirect effects
 Direct+AIEalb Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 AerosIndEff_CldAlb Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Direct+AIEcc Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 AerosIndEff_CldCvr Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt

Table 3. Miscellaneous forcings and their response

  Forcing Mechanism Fi(W/m2) Fa(W/m2) Fs(W/m2) Fixed SST Response 100-yr Response
1Contrails
 10 × Contrail Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
2Solar Irradiance
 0.8 × solar irrad. Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 0.9 × solar irrad. Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 0.95 × solar irrad. Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 0.98 × solar irrad. Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 1.02 × solar irrad. Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 1.05 × solar irrad. Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 sol.irrad. 1880->2000,Lean Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Sol.irrad. 4 × 1880->2000,Lean Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt

Table 4. Climate forcing agents employed in transient simulations

  Forcing Mechanism Fi(W/m2) Fa(W/m2) Fs(W/m2) Fixed SST Response 100-yr Response
1Individual forcings
 CO2,CH4,N2O,CFC 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 CH4 oxidation 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 ozone 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Land Use 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 BC Snow alb reduc none->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Sol.irrad. 4 × 1880->2000,Lean Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 1/3 × Pinatubo aerosols Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 trop.aeros 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 trop.aeros 1880->1997 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 Direct+AIEcc 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
2Combined forcings
 All forcings 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 All forcs,enh SnoAlb 1880->2000 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 ocean 1880->1990 Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt
 All forc. 1880->2000,1990 ocn Lat-Lon Lat-Lon Lat-Hgt

Reference

Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, SS. Bauer, N. Bell, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, M. Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, S. Menon, R. Miller, P. Minnis, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, B. Wielicki, T. Wong, M. Yao, and S. Zhang 2005. Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.

Contact

Please address questions about these "Efficacy" webpages to Dr. Reto Ruedy.

Also participating in this research were Drs. James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato and Larissa Nazarenko.