Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Model Intercomparison Project (CERESMIP)
The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed’ drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) inputs for AMIP-style atmospheric simulations have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI.
CERESMIP is a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison that targets the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2024. The focus is on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 onwards. The diagnostic focus is on the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so diagnostics will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request consists of a single AMIP-style simulation, while the Tier 2 would encompasses uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses.
The paper describing the protocol is Schmidt et al. (2023).
Updated input datasets
...are available via inputsMIPs.
Experiment requests
The requested experiments are listed in the following table:
Experiment name | Description | Tier | Start year | End year | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Combined forcings atmospheric simulations | |||||
1.1 amip | All forcings (single run) with observed SST/SIC | 1 | 1990 | 2024 | As CMIP6 AMIP but with updated forcings. |
1.2 amip | All forcings (ensemble) with observed SST/SIC | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | |
1.3 amip-nudge | All forcings (single run, nudged winds) with observed SST/SIC | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | |
1.4 amip-nat | Natural forcings (solar + volcanic + orbital) with observed SST/SIC | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | AMIP SST/SIC and natural forcings only. All other boundary conditions set to 1850. |
2. Single forcing atmospheric simulations | |||||
2.1 amip-ghg | Well-mixed greenhouse-gas-only simulations with observed SST/SIC | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | AMIP SST/SIC and WM-GHG forcings only. All other boundary conditions set to 1850. |
2.2 amip-aer | Anthropogenic-aerosol-only simulations with observed SST/SIC | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | AMIP SST/SIC and aerosol forcings only. All other boundary conditions set to 1850. |
2.3 amip-slcf | Anthropogenic changes in short-lived climate forcings (for use with models including interactive composition) with observed SST/SIC | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | forcings except with WM-GHGs set to 1850 levels. |
2.4 amip-sst | Observed SST/SIC change only | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | AMIP SST/SIC only. All other boundary conditions set to 1850. |
3. All-but-one atmospheric simulations | |||||
3.1 amip-noghg | As with amip, but no changes in well-mixed GHGs | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | All AMIP forcings except with WM-GHGs set to 1850 levels. |
3.2 amip-noaer | As with amip, but no changes in aerosols | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | All AMIP forcings except with aerosols set to 1850 levels. |
3.3 piclim-histall | As with amip, but using fixed pre-industrial SST/SIC | 2 | 1990 | 2024 | All historical forcings with SST/SIC fixed at PI (~1850) conditions. |
Links to results
To upload your results to ESGF, please update the CMIP6Plus tables to at least v6.5.10.0 and use the latest CMOR programs (at least v3.13) to process them.
As model results are uploaded, they will be visible on the various ESGF nodes under era CMIP6Plus, activity CERESMIP, etc. We will endeavour to summarise results here in preparation for peer-reviewed publications later.
Contact
Please contact Dr. Gavin Schmidt if you have any questions or comments about these data.
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